December 30, 2025 | By Dusty Wright, The Wright Team

I’ve analyzed the complete November 2025 market data for Washington County, and the story it tells is not a simple one. There are mixed signals across inventory, permits, sales activity, and distress indicators — and if you’re building spec homes right now, understanding how these pieces fit together matters more than ever.

Hurricane Valley Inventory: Still the Biggest Problem Area

Inventory in Hurricane Valley remains elevated and slow-moving, particularly for spec product.

Single-Level Homes

  • 83 active listings with only 46 sold in the last 6 months

  • 3 bed / 2 car: 21 active, 91 days on market

  • 4+ bed / 3 car: 20 active, 109 days on market

  • 4+ bed with RV: 12 active, only 4 sales in 6 months

Compared to Greater St. George

    • 59 active single-level listings

  • 115 sold in the last 6 months

  • Absorption rates are nearly double Hurricane Valley

Greater St. George remains challenging, but homes are still moving. Hurricane Valley is not seeing the same liquidity.

Dead Zones That Persist

  • Hurricane Valley two-story, 3-bedroom: zero inventory (builders won’t touch it)

  • Hurricane Valley two-story, 4+ bed / 2-car: 2 active, zero sales, 200 CDOM

  • Any Hurricane Valley spec over $700,000

November’s Surprise: Building Permits Jumped 10%

November 2025 posted 182 building permits, up from 162 in November 2024. On the surface, that looks like momentum — but context matters.

The Full-Year Reality

  • Projected 2025 permits: 2,256

  • 5-year average: 2,499 (down 10%)

  • 2024 total: 2,332 (down 3%)

Translation: One strong month does not create a trend. Builders pulled back sharply through most of 2025, and we’re still tracking 264 permits below 2024’s pace.

Market Activity: Modest Declines Across the Board

November 2025 vs. November 2024

  • Lot sales: 86 vs. 110 (↓ 22%)

  • New home sales: 148 vs. 165 (↓ 10%)

  • Total dwelling sales: 479 vs. 496 (↓ 3%)

  • All sales (including lots): 591 vs. 653 (↓ 9%)

Year-to-Date Through November

  • Lot sales: 1,205 vs. 1,361
    (Projected 1,315 for full year — ↓ 3%)

  • New home sales: 1,901 vs. 2,021 (↓ 6%)

  • Total dwelling sales: 6,197 vs. 6,528
    (Projected 6,760 — ↓ 5%)

The Silver Lining

New construction accounted for 31% of total sales in November. While overall transaction volume is down, resale is getting hit harder than new construction, allowing builders to slightly increase market share.

Distress Signals Are Accelerating

This is where builders need to pay close attention.

Foreclosures

  • 59 through November 2025

  • 47 for all of 2024

  • Up 26% year-over-year

  • November alone recorded 7 foreclosures

Notices of Default

  • 206 through November 2025

  • 179 for all of 2024

  • Already exceeded last year’s total with a month remaining

  • November posted 27 defaults, up from 16 in November 2024

What This Means:
Distress indicators lag the market by 6–12 months. The inventory pressure and extended days-on-market we’re seeing now are likely to intensify before they improve.

The Platted Lot Paradox

Here’s one of the most important disconnects in the data:

  • 2025 platted lot sales: 2,970 through November
    (Already above 2024’s full-year total of 2,463)

  • Projected building permits: 2,256 (↓ 10% from average)

Interpretation:
Developers are still selling lots at a healthy pace, but builders are hesitant to pull permits and start construction. That widening gap between land sales and vertical building is a major caution signal.

What’s Actually Selling Right Now

Strong Performers

  • Greater St. George, single-level 3 bed / 2 car:
    27 sold in 6 months, 79 CDOM

  • Primary bedroom on second level (both markets):
    Lower price points, under 50 CDOM

  • Luxury two-story with RV (St. George):
    17 sold despite 151 CDOM

Luxury Segment (Greater St. George, $950K–$1.35M)

  • Single-level 4+ bed with RV: 6 sold, 86 CDOM

    • Two-story 4+ bed / 3-car: 13 sold, 96 CDOM

  • Two-story 4+ bed with RV: 17 sold, 151 CDOM

Even luxury product is taking 3–5 months to move, and sold-to-list ratios of 95–97% confirm price reductions are common.

Geographic Winners and Losers (November)

Top Markets by Total Sales

  1. Washington City: 148 sales (↑ from 140 in 2024)

  2. Hurricane: 92 sales (↓ from 114)

  3. Southeast St. George: 85 sales (↓ from 112)

Hurricane is down 19% year-over-year, while Washington City remains the only major submarket showing growth.

What This Means for Builders

If You’re Building in Hurricane Valley

  • Don’t mistake one good permit month for recovery

  • You’re carrying 83 active single-level specs with slow absorption

  • Avoid spec above $650K unless you’ve budgeted 9+ months of carry

  • Two-story product remains a no-go

If You’re Building in Greater St. George

    • Single-level 3 bed / 2 car remains the most liquid product

  • You’re competing on absorption time, not features

  • Plan for 90–150 days on market

  • Luxury moves — just not quickly

County-Wide Reality

  • Platted lots up 21% YoY, permits down 10%

  • Foreclosures accelerating

  • Defaults running 15% above last year

  • November’s permit bump is noise, not signal

In Conclusion

One strong month of permits doesn’t change the broader story. Washington County’s new construction market remains oversupplied, particularly in Hurricane Valley. Most product is sitting 100+ days on market, and transaction volume is down 3–10% across nearly every category.

Year-end projections point to:

    • Flat lot sales (↓ 3%)

  • New home sales down 6%

  • Permits down 10% from average

  • Rising foreclosures and defaults

If you’re launching new product, you need:

    1. Pricing grounded in recent 6-month comps

    2. 6–9 months of carrying costs baked into projections

  • A willingness to adjust price after 60 days

  1. Geographic discipline — Washington City works; Hurricane Valley does not

November’s permit increase is worth watching, but the leading indicators suggest 2026 will remain a builder’s market that rewards patience, discipline, and capital strength.

Want a full market snapshot with comps tailored to your product type and location?
Contact The Wright Team for a customized builder market analysis using complete November data.

 

New construction inventory data reflects current active listings and six-month sales history. Market statistics sourced from Washington County MLS, Southern Utah Title Company, building permit records, and county recorder data through November 2025.